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-- Brad Delong

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Friday, August 2, 2013

Tigers July Wrap Up

Despite starting the month with a loss and returning from the all star break with a shut out loss to the Royals, the Tigers had an excellent July.  They went 18-8 for the month, after going only 14-14 in May and 14-13 in June, and are now 16 games over .500.

The July win percentage was .692.  An entire season with that win rate would yield 112 victories, the third best record since MLB went to the 162 game schedule.  By wide margins, the Tigers increased their runs per game, while cutting down opponents scoring.  This reverses the June trend, which was gong the wrong way.

Here is scoring by month for the season so far.

There are still a couple of troubling features, though, and they're the same ones that have been there all season: opponents are scoring late inning runs and the Tigers aren't.

Here is the breakdown by inning.

Runs have come early and often, with huge output in innings 1, 2, and 6.  But after the 6th, the offense takes the rest of the day off.  Second inning scoring is the same as that from inning 6 - 9 combined.  Only 18% of Tigers runs come in the final three innings.

This hasn't mattered because the Tigers generally win by a comfortable margin.  But it also accounts for a less than stellar record in close or low scoring games.

It's quite a different story for the opponents.

Tigers out score the other teams in every inning until the 8th, when there is a dramatic reverse.  Opponents score 32% of their runs in the final three innings.  Fortunately, though, the Tigers are putting up big totals, so this has not hurt them too badly - for now.

Here is Tigers scoring per game in July.

Despite the mid-month trough - which looks worse than it is because early and late run totals were so high - the season average to date has been on the rise, and is now at 5.18.  Coming into Tuesdays game, the Tigers led the league in scoring with 2 outs, bring in 218 of their 538 runs [at that time] after 2.  That's a remarkable 40.5%.

During the month they outscored their opponents 153 to 92.  That's 1.66 runs for every opponent's run.

Here are some random stats.

It's good to see the Tigers find their bats, and have things trending the right way. But they still need to score more late runs, and shut down the opposition in the 8th and 9th.

Same as it ever was.

June Wrap Up

May Wrap Up

April Wrap Up

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