Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

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Thursday, September 6, 2012

A Quick Look at Federal Spending

Over at Plain Blog, an anonymous wing nut made this off-topic comment.
Now, yes, Bill Clinton and his 2000 federal spending level of 18% of GDP doesn't put him on the fringe, which makes it surprising that you lefties are celebrating him, even as you hysterically condemn anybody who resists the Left's current massive spending levels, which are nearly 50% greater than Clinton's and are spending the nation into debt obvlivion.

This once again raises the regressive canard that Obama has been a profligate and fiscally irresponsible spender.

Let's have a look.

Here is a graph of current expenditures that took place in the years of the current century.




First observation is that anon's math isn't very good.  Current expenditures are roughly 100% greater than when Clinton left office, not a mere 50%.

Second observation is that the vast majority of that increase - from about $1900 billion to about $3200 billion - took place under the previous administration.

Third observation is that the bulk of the Obama increase occurred during the recession - as it should - from a bit under $3200 billion to a bit under $3600 billion.  Since then it's crept up to about $3800 billion, and has recently flat-lined.

A more subtle point is that spending, like many time series data sets, increases exponentially over time, following population growth.  So, saying that a value at time B is some percentage greater than the value at time A communicates essentially zero information.  Context matters.

Let's look at expenditures in terms of year over year increase.



Yep, there was a big increase in 2009 and 2010, as social safety net programs kicked in.

Since then, expenditure growth fell precipitously and now has actually gone negative.  The last time that happened was in the Eisenhower administration.  Clearly, Obama has not been profligate.  Would it be an exaggeration to say he's been miserly?

Bill Clinton did a great job of exposing Republican lies in his speech at the Democratic convention last night.  But really, it's easy.  All you have to do to refute a regressive is have a quick look at facts and data.

Cross posted at Angry Bear.

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