Taking Stock -Week of September 27, 2021

Monday, September 27, 2021

Arrows, arrows, everywhere – who knows?

DJI30 Index at the close --- 34,869.37 +71.37 (+0.21%)

SP500 --- 4,443.11 -12.37 (-0.28%)

NASDAQ --- 14,969.97 -77.73 (-0.52%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,281.00 +32.93 (+1.46%)

The DJI opened at 34739, off 59 points, and immediately started climbing. It reached a hi of 35061, up 263 at 10:30, then fell back to 43950 at 11:00. It dropped to 34880, up 82, at 1:00, then moved sideways, mostly between those 2 levels, then fell off a bit at the end. The main direction after 10:30 was down. Still, this was a clearly up day by 204 points at the top and 91 at the bottom. The span was 322.

The SP500 opened near its lo, went to 4457, 2 points positive at 10:30, hit the bottom at 4436 before 1:00, rose just under positive territory between 2:00 and 3:30, then landed near the low. The net of this up and down motion was an inside day by 6 points at either end, and a small loss at the end. The span was 14 points.

The NASDAQ was the inverse of the DJI. It opened lo, rose erratically all day, but never made it into the green. It had a clearly down day by 64 and 82 points.

The Russell 2000 started slightly positive, climbed until 11:00, then went mostly sideways, hitting its hi at 2:30, then sliding into the close for a gain of almost a percent and a half. It had a clearly up day by 33 and 9 points.

Every index went its own way. It's hard to know what to make of a day like this. The Russell had the strongest showing, and the NASDAQ had the weakest. Nothing today suggests that the current trend is up. Until that happens, I suspect that the downward thrust is continuing.

DJI Closings -
9/27/19 - 26820
9/25/20 - 27174
8/27/21 - 35455
9/27/21 - 34869


NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1972/1346 = 1.47
A/D Vol = 2.57

New Hi/Lo = 118/47 = 2.51

Tuesday, September 28, 2021

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,299.99   -569.38 (-1.63%)

SP500   ---   4,352.63   -90.48 (-2.04%)

NASDAQ   ---   14,969.97   14,546.68-423.29 (-2.83%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,281.00   2,229.78-51.23 (-2.25%)

The DJI opened at 34748, off 122, and fell hard for a half hour, reaching 34500.off 369, at 10:00.  It then slithered down to the lo of 34255, off 615, after 1:00 and again an hour later.  It rebounded to 34520, off 349, after 3:00, but then fell again, landing 45 points above the low.  This is a clearly down day by 263 and 485 points.  The span was 544.

The SP500 opened off 24 points, and quickly fell deeper into the red.  It had a clearly down day by 38 and 90 points.

The NASDAQ opened off 183 points, followed the other indexes down, and had a clearly down day by 185 and 325 points.

The Russell 2000 followed suit and had a clearly down day by 14 and 20 points

Yesterday was ambiguous and confusing.  Not so today, when the indexes were all sharply down with similar contours.  But – no new ground has been trod in weeks, or longer.  Despite the DJI, SP500 and NASDAQ all achieving new all time highs between August 16 and September 7, they all have been trading in ranges since early July or longer.  The DJI has been moving sideways since early May, and the Russell since early February.

I still believe the current waves from recent highs are down in all the indexes.  But they will all have to fall at least into their resistance zones to confirm.

DJI Closings -

9/27/19 - 26820

9/28/20 - 27584

8/27/21 - 35455

9/28/21 - 34300

NYSE Internals – Extremely weak today

A/D = 654/12663 = 0.25

A/D Vol = 0.23

New Hi/Lo = 77/77 = 1.00

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,390.72   +90.73 (+0.26%)

SP500   ---   4,359.46   +6.83 (+0.16%)

NASDAQ   ---   14,512.44   -34.24 (-0.24%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,225.31   -4.47 (-0.20%

The DJI opened at 34260, up 60 points.  It quickly dropped about 55, then shot up, rising over 34500 by 10:00.  It zig-zagged along, dropping to 34370 after 1:30.  It then quickly rose, reaching 34560, up 260 at 2:15, and the hi of 34580 a half hour later.  Sadly, though, it fell hard – 190 points -  in the last half hour, landing only 85 points above the lo.  This is an inside day with the hi lower by 218, and the lo higher by 51.  The span was 274.

The SP500 followed a similar path, leading to a smaller gain.  It had an inside day by 34 points at the top and 9 at the bottom.

The NASDAQ had wider swings, dipping into the red around mid-day and again at the end for a small loss at the close.  It had a clearly down day by 141 points at the top and 46 at the bottom.

The Russell 2000 was similar to the NASDAQ, with more time in the red, but a smaller loss at the end.  It had a clearly down day by 40 points at the top and 6 at the bottom.

If there is anything encouraging here, it is the the relative small decreases in the daily lows.  Also, today's moves are rather inconsequential on their own.  As I said yesterday “no new ground has been trod in weeks, or longer.”  That is still true.  So, I still think the current short term trend is down. 

DJI Closings -

9/27/19 - 26820

9/29/20 - 27453

8/27/21 - 35455

9/29/21 - 34391

NYSE Internals – 

A/D = 1946/1370 = 1.42

A/D Vol = 1.11

New Hi/Lo = 57/68 = 0.84

Thursday, September 30, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   33,843.92   -546.80 (-1.59%)

SP500   ---   4,307.54   -51.92 (-1.19%)

NASDAQ   ---   14,448.58   -63.86 (-0.44%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,204.37   -20.94 (-0.94%)

The DJI opened at 34468, up 77 points, and immediately jumped to 34557, up 167.  For an instant.  From there it was a rough tumble to 33904. off 486 at 12:15.  It bounced near that level until 1:30 when it rose, hitting 34160 before 3:00.  It then went mostly sideways, staying above 34040 until after 3:30, when it broke sharply down, to close within 10 points of the late day lo.  

This is a clearly down day by 23 points at the top and 473 at the bottom.  The span is a stunning 724 points, the largest since 914 on 3/04/21.  

The SP500 also started positive, followed a similar path as the DJI, and ended with a smaller negative.  It had a clearly down day by 3 points at the top and 49 points at the bottom.

The NASDAQ had a roughly similar contour, but spent more time in the green for most of the morning and again in mid-afternoon; but the late afternoon slide took it negative by almost a half percent.  It had a clearly down day by 44 and 49 points.

The Russell 2000 was similar to the SP500 and lost almost a percent.  It had a clearly down day by a fraction of a point at the top and 17 at the bottom.

Each index is approaching, but still above its respective support zone.  So on a medium term basis, motion is still sideways.  On a short term basis, it's still down.  The sharp fall off at the end of today's session is especially disturbing.

DJI Closings -

9/30/19 - 26917

9/30/20 - 27782

8/31/21 - 35361

9/30/21 - 33844

NYSE Internals – 

A/D = 1221/2151 = 0.57

A/D Vol = 0.35  –  total volume was 27% above its 34 day average

New Hi/Lo = 53/82 = 0.65

Friday, October 1, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,326.46   +482.54 (+1.43%)

SP500   ---  4,357.04   +49.50 (+1.15%)

NASDAQ   ---   14,566.70   +118.12 (+0.82%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,241.63+37.26 (+1.69%)

The DJI opened at 33931, up 87 points, and immediately shot up to 34117, up 273.  From there it fell, landing at 33786 before and after 10:30.  Then there was a more or less steady climb that reached the hi of 34491, up 647 at 3:15.  But from there it fell 164 points into the close.  Contra the 483 point gain, the hi and lo were off by 67 and 48 points, respectively.  The span was 705 points, 19 under yesterday's.  

 

This is a nice gain, but the close is still  64 points lower than Wednesday's, and 735 points under Monday's hi.  So the Index is, at best, treading water, and the short term trend is still down.

The SP500 opened positive, had a brief excursion into negative territory then rose until late in the day, when is slumped like the DJI. Its hi and lo were lower by 7 and 18 points.  The close is only about 4 points above Tuesday's and 86 below Monday's.

The NASDAQ followed a similar path.  Its hi and lo were lower by 26 and 120 points.  The close is 20 points above Tuesday's and 400 under Monday's

The Russell 2000 had an outside day with the hi higher by 12 points and the lo lower by 7.  It was the day's big gainer.  But its close was only 12 points above Tuesday's and 40 under Monday's.

The net of all this is just another zig in the ongoing medium sideways trajectory, and the short term trend down. 

Weekly Changes -

DJI30 -1.36%

SP500 -2.21%

NASDAQ -3.20%

Russell 2000 -0.29%

DJI Closings -

10/01/19 - 26573

10/01/20 - 27817

9/01/21 - 35313

10/01/21 - 34326

NYSE Internals – 

A/D = 2340/1001 = 2.34

A/D Vol = 3.98

New Hi/Lo = 91/79 = 1.15

Taking Stock - Week of September 20, 2021

 Monday, September 20, 2021

Red Arrow Down, Down, Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   33,970.47   -614.41 (-1.78%)

SP500 Index   ---   4,357.73   -75.26 (-1.70%)

NASDAQ Index   ---   14,713.90   -330.06 (-2.19%)

Russell 2000 Index  ---   2,182.20   -54.67 (-2.44%)

The DJI opened at 34469, gapping down by 160 points.  It immediately fell to 33988, off 598. It then went sideways, between that level and 34215 until about noon, when it broke lower, hitting bottom, 33613, off 972, about 3:15.  From there it rose over 300 points into the close.  At the lo, it was only 87 points above the support level at 33526.

This is about as clearly a down day as you can ever imagine, with the hi lower by 320 points, and the lo lower by a stunning 907.  The span was 847 points, the largest this year.

On Friday I said, ”But if subwave iii of 3 down is starting, the magnitude of the drop next week could be breath-taking.”   And now, this certainly does look like that kind of 3rd wave action.  I chose the DJI for that comment because the wave form was clearest in that Index. The recovery in the last hour might be all or part of subwave iv.  When that is completed, we can expect a further drop in the next couple days.

All the indexes had similar contours.  The SP500 also hit bottom around 3:15, just like the DJI.  It was clearly down by 69 and 122 points.

The NASDAQ also hit its lo around 3:15, and finished with a larger percentage loss. It was clearly down by 39 and 48 points.

The Russell 2000 also hit its lo around 3:15.  I had a clearly down day by 8 and 65 points.  

This entire year has been spent in elevated territory never before visited by any of the indexes.  Many pundits and analysts have been giving fundamental and technical reasons why the markets are due for some sort of a pull back.  The Elliott wave analysis I'm aware of has been calling for a rather dramatic drop, followed by another surge to new highs over the next year or two.  After that, there will either be a crash or doldrum lasting for several years.  Whichever way that plays out, returns from equities will be then either flat or down during that time.

If you believe in reversion to mean, you'll realize that this is inevitable. After the crash of 1929, the DJI didn't recover to it's pre-crash high until 1954 – 25 long years of depression and war.

NYSE internals were extremely weak on very high volume

Daily % Changes -
DJI30 -1.78%
SP500 -1.79%
NASDAQ -2.19%
Russell -2.44%

DJI Closings -
9/17/19 - 26926
9/17/20 - 27657
8/20/21 - 35120
9/20/21 - 33970

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 532/2798 = 0.19
A/D Vol = 0.11

New Hi/Lo = 15/88 = 0.17

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   33,919.84   -50.63 (-0.15%)

SP500   ---   4,354.19   -3.54 (-0.08%)

NASDAQ   ---   14,746.40   +32.49 (+0.22%)

Russell200   ---   2186.18   +3.98 (+0.18%)

The DJI opened at 34025.61, up 55 points, and within 20 minutes reached the day's hi of 34314, up 343.  It hit near the low, 33914, off 56 points at 11:00, 2:30, and at the close.  This is an inside day with the hi lower by 146 points, and the lo higher by 301.  The span was 400 points.  At yesterday's lo, it was off more than 5%, and finished above that level today.

The SP500 had an almost identical contour, touching near it's lo of 4348 at 11:00, 2:30 and the close.  This is an inside day by 8 points at the top and 42 at the bottom.  At yesterday's lo, it was off more than 5%, and finished above that level today.

The NASDAQ had a roughly similar contour, but only touched negative territory at its 11:00 low.  It had a clearly up day by 5 points at the top and 166 at the bottom.   At yesterday's lo, it was off more than 5%, and finished above that level today.  It was today's strongest performer.

The Russell 2000 was most similar to the NASDAQ , touching negative territory only once near 11:00. But it had an inside day by 31 points at the top and 17 at the bottom.  It has been bouncing around its 5% off level for weeks.  It dipped within 31 points of being 10% off at yesterday's lo.

Every index hit its daily high early in the session, and after that, motion was  sideways to down for the rest of the session.  They are all running below their 55 day EMAs.

I suspect the rise at the end yesterday, and the continuing sideways motion today, are parts of subwave iv of wave 3 down.  If this is correct, subwave v down is still ahead of us, and we can expect another leg lower before the end of the week.  This also suggests a future counter-current wave 4 up at the next higher level of trend, followed by wave 5 down.  It's tough to determine exactly which level of trend is being observed in real time; so there is lot of uncertainty in the short term.  Either way, though, it suggests that the indexes have not reached their local bottoms.

DJI Closings -

9/20/19 - 26935

9/21/20 - 27148

8/20/21 - 35120

9/21/21 - 33920

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1782/1473 = 1.21

A/D Vol = 0.98

New Hi/Lo = 38/46 = 0.83

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,258.32   +338.48 (+1.00%)

SP500   ---   4,395.64   +41.45 (+0.95%)

NASDAQ   ---   14,896.85   +150.45 (+1.02%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,218.56   +32.38 (+1.48%)

The DJI opened at 34007, up 87 points and continued climbing, reaching a hi of 34419, up 500 before noon. It then ran mostly sideways, hitting the day's hi, 34440, at 2:15. From there it dropped to 34215 before 3:00.  It rose back to 34410 before 3:30, then dropped 152 points into the close.  This was a clearly up day by 127 points at the top and 93 at the bottom.  The span was 434.

The SP500 had a nearly identical contour.   It had a clearly up day by 22 and 19 points.

As did the NASDAQ, with a smaller fall off at the end.  It had a clearly up day by 103 and 71 points.

The Russell 2000 was most similar to the NASDAQ, and had the day's largest gain.  It was clearly up by 32 and 15 points. 

An up day is a lot more fun than a down day.  But util the indexes climb back above their local highs from earlier this month the trend is, at best, sideways.  The indexes achieved their highs late in the day, but could not hold them.  The droops into the close are not comforting.

DJI Closings -

9/20/19 - 26935

9/22/20 - 27288

8/20/21 - 35120

9/22/21 - 34258

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2679/673 = 3.98

A/D Vol = 5.57

New Hi/Lo = 68/25 = 2.72

Thursday, September 23, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,764.82   +506.50 (+1.48%)

SP500   ---   4,448.98   +53.34 (+1.21%)

NASDAQ   ---   15,052.24   +155.40 (+1.04%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,259.04   +40.48 (+1.82%)

The DJIl opened at 34296, up 38 points, and at 10:00 reached 34740, up 482.  After that, it climbed more slowly, reaching the hi of 34880, up 621, at 2:00.  From there it was a 115 point slide into the close.  This is a clearly up day by 439 points at the top and 289 at the bottom.  The span was 583.

The SP500 had a nearly identical contour, but a smaller gain.  It had a clearly up day by 49 and 39 points,

The NASDAQ was roughly similar, with a still smaller gain.  It was clearly up by 135 and 167 points.

The Russell 2000 had similar contour, but with a steeper rise into its 2:00 high, and wound up with the day's largest gain.

The gains yesterday and today have brought the indexes about back to where there were from 9/14 to 9/16.  They are still below their recent highs.  Unless those highs are exceeded, the man thrust might still be down.

A break below the recent lows would confirm that the decline is continuing.

DJI Closings -

9/23/19 - 26950

9/23/20 - 26763

8/23/21 - 35336

9/23/21 - 34765

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2139/1133 = 1.89

A/D Vol = 4.21

New Hi/Lo = 102/33 = 3.09

Friday, September 24, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,798.00   +33.18 (+0.10%)

SP500   ---   4,455.48   +6.50 (+0.15%)

NASDAQ   ---   15,047.70   -4.54 (-0.03%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,248.07   -10.97 (-0.49%)

The DJI opened at 34762, off 3 points, immediately fell to 34648, off 117, and rebounded near 34850, up about 85, at 10:00.  It then meandered around neutral, near the middle of that range, until after 2:00 when it started rising.  It exceeded that range briefly in the closing moments, reaching 34857, up 92, before falling 59 points into the close on a small volume surge.

This is an inside day, by 23 points at the top and 352 at the bottom. The span was a modest 209.

The SP500 had a similar contour.  It also had an inside day by 2 points at the top and 24 at the bottom.

The NASDAQ started negative and climbed most of the day, briefly going green after 3:30.  It then slid 33 points into the close, for a very small loss. It had an inside day by 18 points at the top and 14 points at the bottom.

Except for a brief bump above neutral around noon, the Russell 2000 spent the entire day in the red, finishing with a loss of almost a half percent.  It also had an inside day, by 18 points at he top and 14 at the bottom.

An inside day gets a yellow arrow by definition.  Small changes validate this conclusion.  Over the last several day, with a lot of gyrations, markets have gone nowhere. 

Today's sideways motion is counter-current.  But at what level of trend?   Is it a pause in the increases of the last two days, or part of  consolidation in the down-slope from the local highs earlier this month?  It's very difficult to tell, so we'll need to see which way it goes next week.  I know this is not helpful, but it's where we are.  

Weekly % Changes -

DJI30 +0.62%

SP500 +0.51%

NASDAQ + 0.02%

Russell +0.50%

DJI Closings -

9/24/19 - 26808

9/24/20 - 26815

8/24/21 - 35366

9/24/21 - 34798

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1349/1927 = 0.70

A/D Vol = 0.82

New Hi/Lo = 78/44 = 1.77

Taking Stock - Week of September 13, 2021

Monday, September 13, 2021

DJI30 Index at the close --- 34,869.63 +261.91 (+0.76%)

SP500 Index --- 4,468.73 +10.15 (+0.23%)

The DJI opened at 34665.5, up 58 points, and chopped up to the day's hi, 34039, up 331 at 10:45. It slid to the lo, 34665, up 58, at 2:15, ran mostly sideways for most of an hour, then rose into the close with a late volume surge.

This was an inside day, with the hi lower by 165 points, and the lo higher by 66. The spread was 274 points, 231 points smaller than Friday's.

The SP500 had a similar contour, at a lower pitch, dipped into the red in the afternoon, and finished with a smaller gain, also on increased volume. Despite the small gain, it had a mixed day with the hi lower by 27 points, and the lo lower by 12.

The NASDAQ started positive and quickly dropped into the red. It meandered in a mostly negative range for the rest of the day and finished with a small loss, climbing at the end on increased vollume. But it had a clearly down day by the substantial margins of 134 points at the top and 80 at the bottom

The Russell 2000 started positive, had a brief excursion into the red, then ran positive to end with a gain of over a half percent. Like the SP500, it had a mixed day with the hi lower by 19 points, and the lo lower by 10.

It's hard to know what to make of a day like this with a lack of coordination among the indexes. They are all below their recent highs, but well above their 8/19 lows. But only the NASDAQ remains above its trend line from the 3/23/20 low. This action looks like continuing consolidation; it really is several days of going nowhere. But – is it in preparation for the next leg up, or the prelude to a significant correction?

Daily % Changes -
DJI30 +0.76%
SP500 +0.23%
NASDAQ -0.07%
Russell +0.59%

DJI Closings -
9/10/19 - 26909
9/10/20 - 27535
8/10/21 - 35265
9/10/21 - 34608

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 2066/1234 = 1.67
A/D Vol = 2.37
New Hi/Lo = 88/36 = 2.44

Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,577.57   -292.06 (-0.84%)

SP500 Index   ---   4,443.05   -25.68 (-0.57%)

The DJI opened at 34907, up 37 points, and a few minutes later reached the day's hi of 34990, up 121.  From there it slid to the close in 3 steps, landing 67 points above the lo which occurred only a few minutes earlier, for a 292 point loss.  This is an outside day, with the hi higher by 51 points and the lo lower by 155.  The index broke below its 55 day EMA, and looks like it might be heading straight down.

The SP500 had a clearly down day, by 7 points at the top and 10 at the bottom.  Its contour was roughly similar to the DJI's, with three bumpier steps down, and the lo just a few minutes before the close.  Its trajectory now also looks like it is heading down.  But it is still above its 55 day EMA.

The NASDAQ started positive and had another brief excursion into the green at noon before sliding into the day's lo at 3:30.  It had a clearly down day by 34 and 22 points.  It's still above its 55 day EMA, and slightly above its trend line from the 3/23/20 low.

The Russell 2000 had an outside day, up 5 points at the top, and down 13 at the bottom.  It started positive, but quickly fell negative and had a similar downward downward sweep as the NASDAQ, hitting bottom after 3:30.  It'

s below its 55 day EMA, and only about 50 points above the top of its resistance band.

This all looks bad and feels bad, but the indexes are still well above recent lows.  There have been sharp mid-month lows in most of the Indexes in May, June, July and August.  So maybe the current action is just continuing that trend.  The rest of this week should tell us where we are heading.  But NYSE internals were very week today, and that does not bode well.  I'm DRIPping my portfolio of hi dividend paying stocks, and unless it looks like the end of the world, my plan is to ride it out.

Daily % Changes -

DJI30 -0.57%

SP500 -0.84%

NASDAQ -0.45%

Russell -1.37%

DJI Closings -

9/13/19 - 27220

9/14/20 - 27993

8/13/21 - 35515

9/14/21 - 34578

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1022/2288 = 0.45

A/D Vol = 0.28

New Hi/Lo = 67/56 = 1.2

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Greenish Arrow Upish

DJI30 at the close   ---   34,814.39   +236.82 (+0.68%)

SP500   ---   4,480.70   +37.65 (+0.85%)

The DJI opened at 34581, up 3 points, and in the next few minutes fell to 34522, off 56.  Evidently this completed a wave down as some small level of trend.  The Index then rose, reaching 34715, up 137 after 10:00. After drawing back to 34590, up 12, the Index took off, reaching the hi of 34881, up 303, at 1:45. From there it meandered into the close, 66 points under the high.

This is, somewhat surprisingly, an inside day, with the high lower by 110 points, and the lo higher by 12.  The span was 359 points, 121 points less than yesterday's.  So this is really going nowhere.  Today's close is 55 points under Monday's.

The SP500 had a clearly up day by the small margins of 1 and 3 points. It stepped higher the entire session, ending 6 points under the hi.  This is the highest close in a week, but still under all the closes from 8/27 to 9/09. So – is this Index going anywhere?  We need more data to decide.

The NASDAQ slogged along slightly in the red until a move up before 1:00.  It then climbed to the hi after 3:30, 13 points above the close.  The lo was right at the trend line from the 3/23/20 lo.

The Russell 2000 had an inside day with the hi lower by 13 points and the lo higher by 3.  It had a choppy ride with a steady upward slant.  Except for Friday's and yesterdays, today's hi was the lowest since 8/24.

All the indexes are, at best, going nowhere; and possibly in decline.  Today approximately undid yesterday's losses, netting out to no meaningful information so far this week.   

Daily % Changes -

DJI30 +0.85%

SP500 +0.68%

NASDAQ +0.82%

Russell +1.11%

DJI Closings -

9/13/19 - 27220

9/15/20 - 27996

8/13/21 - 35515

9/15/21 - 34814

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2292/1005 = 2.28

A/D Vol = 2.6

New Hi/Lo = 74/48 = 1.54

Thursday, September 16, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 index at the close   ---   34,751.32   -63.07 (-0.18%)

SP500 Index   ---   4,473.75   -6.95 (-0.16%)

The DJI opened at 34810, off 4 points, and immediately jumped to 34944, up 129.  From there it was a hard tumble, hitting the lo of 34540 before 11:00.  It then climbed irregularly, reaching 34850, up 36, after 3:00. But then it slid 99 points for a 63 point loss.  This is a mixed day with the hi and lo higher by 63 and 18 points, respectively.  The span was 403 points.

All the indexes has roughly similar contours with a mid-morning low followed by a climb into the late afternoon.  The SP500 had an inside day, with the hi lower by 1 point, and the lo higher by 5.  It finished with a small loss.  This is the 3rd straight day of topping out within a point of 4486.  Could that be a resistance level.

The NASDAQ had a clearly up day by 31 and 64 points, and managed to stay positive at the end.

The Russell 2000 had an inside day with the hi lower by 13 points, and the lo higher by 3.  It was not able to hold its late afternoon hi, and finished with a small negative.

All the daily changes were less than 0.2%  This all continues the trend of going nowhere.  The week's aimless volatility is attributed to options exposure tomorrow.  We'll see.

Daily % Changes -

DJI30 -0.18%

SP500 -0.16%

NASDAQ +0.13%

Russell -0.07%

DJI Closings -

9/13/19 - 27220

9/15/20 - 27996

8/13/21 - 35515

9/15/21 - 34814

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2292/1005 = 2.28

A/D Vol = 2.6

New Hi/Lo = 74/48 = 1.54

Friday, September 17, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,584.88   -166.44 (-0.48%)

SP500 Index   ---   4,432.99   -40.76 (-0.91%)

The DJI opened at 34738, off 13 points, and slid to a lo of 34520, off 232 at 11:30.  It bounced up from there at noon, reaching 34660, off 91 after 12:30.  It slid again to 34520 again before 2:00, then galumphed sideways into the close, about 68 points higher.  This is a clearly down day by 164 points at the top, but only 20 at the bottom.  The span was 260.  It broke below its 55 day EMA a few days ago, and now is about to drag the 13 day EMA along with it.

Coming off the 8/16 hi, this looks like the Index has experienced wave 1 down, wave 2 up to a lower hi at 35511 on 8/30, then sub waves I and ii of wave 3 down.  If subwave ii is continuing, then we will get still more sideways motion into next week.  But if subwave iii of 3 down is starting, the magnitude of the drop next week could be breath-taking.  I'm no Elliott wave expert, and would very much like to be wrong about this.  But I don't see any other way to read these tea leaves.  A 5% decline off the 8/16 hi would land at 33850.  A 10% decline would land at 32068.  Red line support in the chart is at 33526, not far from the 5% level.  A lower support line [not show] is at 31580, far under the 10% line.

The SP500 had a similar contour and clearly down day by 14 and 16 points.  The wave structure is less clear, but the Index is clearly heading down.  It's only marginally above its 55 day EMA.  A 5% decline off its 9/02 hi would land at 4319.  A 10% decline would land at 4091.  These values are close to the the red support lines on the SP500 chart. See the chart in yesterday's update.  It the DJI falls hard, I don't see how the SP500 can resist following.

The NASDAQ also had a similar daily contour, and also appears to headed down on a larger scale.  It is still about 175 points above it 55 day EMA, and this week's lows are right along the trend line from the 3/23/20 lo.   A 5% decline from the 9/07 hi would land at 14633; 10% would land at 13863.     

The Russell 2000 touched positive territory 3 times: at the start, just before 1:00, and again for a 4 point gain at the close.  This is an inside day by 2 and 3 points, and a more explicitly sideways move than the other indexes had.  The 5% loss level from the 3/15 hi is 2242.  The Index has dropped below that level several times, and is a couple points under that level today. The 10% level is at 2124, near the bottom of the support region on its chart.

This week's strongest showing was a pretty tepid upside move on Wednesday.  Everything looks pointed down from here.  Pretty poor way to end the week.

This was a triple witching day, so NYSE volume was about 31/2 time the recent average.  Internals were quite weak.  

Weekly % Changes – not much

DJI30 -0.06%

SP500 -0.06%

NASDAQ +0.13%

Russell -0.07%

Daily % Changes -

DJI30 -0.48%

SP500 -0.91%

NASDAQ -0.91%

Russell +0.18%

DJI Closings -

9/17/19 - 27095

9/17/20 - 27902

8/17/21 - 35343

9/17/21 - 34587

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1190/2085 = 0.57

A/D Vol = 0.46

New Hi/Lo = 77/30 = 2.57

Taking Stock, Week of September 6, 2121

Monday, September 6, 2021

Markets were closed for the Veteran's Day Holiday.

Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   35,100.00   -269.09 (-0.76%)

SP500 Index   ---   4,520.03   -15.40 (-0.34%)

The DJI opened at 35373, the day's hi, up 4 points, and immediately fell, hitting the low of 35061, off 308, at 11:15.  At 1:15 it recovered to 35205, off 164, but at 2:30 slid back to 35140, then fell further into the close.

This was a clearly down day, with the hi lower by 49 points and the lo lower by 208.  The span was 312, the largest since 8/18.   The lo and close landed in the range of daily highs from late July, so 35100 +/-  might be a support range.  Or, this might the beginning of a pull back.

The SP500 had a roughly similar contour to the DJI, and a clearly down day by 6 and 8 points

The NASDAQ was down in the morning, up in the early afternoon, and then slid to a tiny gain at the close. Still, this resulted in a not only a clearly up day, by 28 points at the top and 60 at the bottom, but also all time new highs, by 23 points intra-day and 11 at the close.

The Russell 2000 started in the green, slid until noon, ran sideways until 2:00, then stepped down into the close.  It had a clearly down day by 8 and 11 points.

This was a disjointed day, but all the indexes are well above their 8/19 lows.  As long as this is true, I think the upward trend is intact.  But if these are breached, then the chances of a meaningful pull back increase.

Daily % Changes -
DJI30 -0.76%
SP500 -0.34%
NASDAQ +0.07%
Russell -0.72%

DJI Closings -
9/06/19 - 26797
9/04/20 - 28133
8/06/21 - 35209
9/07/21 - 35100

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1023/2305 = 0.44
A/D Vol = 0.60
New Hi/Lo = 128/34 = 3.76

Wednesday, September 8, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   35,031.07   -68.93 (-0.20%)

SP500 Index   ---   4,514.07   -5.96 (-0.13%)

The DJI opened at 35087, off 13 points, rose to the hi of 35175, up 75, then plunged to the lo of 34926, off 174, at 10:45.  After that it meandered with a slight positive tilt, including a rise of 41 points in the last 15 minutes, to end with a small loss.  This is a clearly down day by 198 and 135 points.  The spread was 250.

The index blasted through 35100, which I hoped yesterday would be a support level.  At 34926, the lo reached the 55 day EMA, and that might be a support level.  It's also in the range of several daily highs and lows from late July and early August.

The SP500 had a rather similar contour, and ended with a smaller loss.  It had a clearly down day by 14 and 19 points.  At the low it hit the 13 day EMA, and potential round number resistance at 4500.

The NASDAQ also had a roughly similar contour, though a larger loss.  It opened at the hi for the day, slumped in the morning and ran rather flat in the afternoon.  It fell rather sharply from yesterday's highs, and had a clearly down day by 43 points at the top and 137 at the bottom.  At the low, it stayed above its 13 day EMA.

It seems the Russell is usually at the day's extreme.  It had a similar contour to the other indexes in the morning, but continued to slump in the afternoon to close down more than a percent.  It had a clearly down day by 26 and 34 points.  At the low, it touched the 55 day EMA.  There could be a cluster of support near there around 2250.

This shortened week is off to a poor start.

Daily % Changes -

DJI30 -0.20%

SP500 -0.13%

NASDAQ -0.57%

Russell -1.14%

DJI Closings -

9/06/19 - 26797

9/08/20 - 27501

8/06/21 - 35209

9/08/21 - 35031

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1279/2038 = 0.63

A/D Vol = 0.45

New Hi/Lo = 97/37 = 2.62

Thursday, September 9, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,879.38   -151.69 (-0.43%)

SP500 Index   ---   4,493.28  -20.79 (-0.46%)

The DJI opened at 35013, off 18 points.  It quickly dropped to a lo of 34987, off 44, then reached the hi of 35200, up 169 at 10:00.  It dropped back down to 35020, off 11, at 11:30.  It ran sideways for almost two hours, stepped down to 34880, off 151, at 1:30, then ran mostly sideways until the close, including a 73 point drop from a local hi in the last 20 minutes.  

This is an outside day, with the hi higher by 25 points, and the lo lower by 78.  The span was 353, the widest since 8/18, when the Index lost 383 points.  The lo and close are slightly under the the 55 day EMA.

The SP500 had a similar contour, but a more dramatic drop at the close, to end up only a point above the lo.  It also had an outside day with the hi higher by 8 points, and the lo lower by 2.  The lo and the close were slightly under the 13 day EMA.

The NASDAQ ran positive until after 1:00, when it stepped down by about 50 points.  It then ran mostly sideways until after 3:30, when it fell 52 points from a local hi into the close.  It had an inside day by 8 points at the top and 39 points at the bottom.  The lo and close landed above the 13 day EMA.

The Russell 2000 started and ended less than a point under yesterday's close.  It reached the day's hi at 11:15, stepped down before 1:30, and fell 16 points from a local hi in the last 15 minutes.  It had an inside day by 2 points at the top and 3 at the bottom.

This could be considered a basically sideways day, since all the indexes are off by less than a half percent.  But, they are all down, and all slumped at the day's end, which is sign of weakness.

Daily % Changes -

DJI30 -0.43%

SP500 -0.46%

NASDAQ -0.25%

Russell -0.03%

DJI Closings -

9/06/19 - 26836

9/08/20 - 27940

8/09/21 - 35102

9/09/21 - 34887

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1279/2038 = 0.63

A/D Vol = 0.45

New Hi/Lo = 97/37 = 2.62

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,607.72   -271.66 (-0.78%)

SP500 Index   ---   4,458.58   -34.70 (-0.77%)

The DJI opened at 34950, up 62 points, immediately jumped up to 35104, up 217, and then quickly fell again, sliding into a lo of 34878, off 157, at 11:20.  By 1:00 it recovered to 35900, up 13 points.  From there, it arced down, dropping hardest at the end, to close within 6 points of the lo.  This is a clearly down day by 96 points at the top and 248 at the bottom.  The spread was 505, the largest since 787 on 7/19, when the Index fell 726 points.  The sharp fall off at the end of the session is especially disturbing.

There could be a support zone in the range of 34250 and today's lo, 34600.  But every other support level I've hoped for recently has failed.

All the indexes were in lock-step today, starting positive, slipping into the red, recovering to a slight positive, then  arcing down and dropping hard into the close.  But they all remain well above their 8/19 lows, and farther above their 7/19 lows.  If those are breached, it looks like there will be a significant correction.

This is a dismal end to a poor week.

Weekly % Changes -

DJI30 -2.15%

SP500 -1.69%

NASDAQ -1.61%

Russell -2.81%

Daily % Changes -

DJI30 -0.78%

SP500 -0.77%

NASDAQ -0.87%

Russell -0.96%

DJI Closings -

9/10/19 - 26909

9/10/20 - 27535

8/10/21 - 35265

9/10/21 - 34608

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1192/2046 = 0.58

A/D Vol = 0.35

New Hi/Lo = 110/30 = 3.67