Taking Stock -- Week of July 12, 2021

Monday, July 12, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close --- 34,996.18    +126.02 (+0.36%)

SP500 Index --- 4,384.63.   +15.08 (+0.35%)

The DJI opened at 34836, off 33 points, but quickly rebounded and reached a hi of 35003, up 133 after 10:30. Then it stayed above 34925, up 55, and reached a marginal new daily hi late in the session, and just 15 points above the close. The Index is only a few dozen points under all time intra-day and closing highs.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 121 and 273 points, respectively. The span was 285. The chart includes new lines - 13 day EMA in blue and 55 day EMA in orange. As long as the blue line stays above the blue, things are gong well.

The SP500 reached new highs on Friday while my internet was down, and exceeded them today by about 15 points each on a clearly up day today. It had a similar contour to the DJI.

The NASDAQ also reached new highs on Friday and again today on a clearly up session. It started positive, fell into the red, then straddled the neutral line until mid-afternoon, when it rose to a positive finish.

The Russell 2000 made a big recovery on Friday. It started today in the red, but climbed all day, finishing with a 2 point gain. It has been trading in a range for 4 ½ months.

The week is off to a modestly good start. The BLS releases CPI data tomorrow and PPI data on Wednesday. We'll see if and how the markets respond. So far, they seem to not be taking inflation very seriously.

Daily Changes -
DJI30 +0.36%
SP500 +0.35%
NASDAQ +0.21%
Russell +0.08%

DJI Closings -
7/12/19 - 27332
7/10/20 - 25706
6/10/21 - 34466
7/12/21 - 34999

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1903/1388 = 1.16
A/D Vol = 1.37
New Hi/Lo = 209/14 = 14.93

Tuesday, July13, 2021

Orange Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,888.79-107.39 (-0.31%)

SP500 Index   ---   4,369.21-15.42 (-0.35%)

The DJI opened at 34960, off 39 points. After a quick jump to 35019, up 20, and a new intra-day hi, It dropped to the lo of 34878, off 121, at 10:00.  It rose to 34090 at noon, but slid again, challenging the lo twice around 1:30.  From there it went mostly sideways, but with a downward slant, and hit the day's lo, 34877, 11 points under the close, after 3:00.

This is a mixed day, with the hi higher by only 4 points, but the lo higher by 147, despite the loss.  The span was a modest 142.

The SP500 and NASDAQ had roughly similar contours to the DJI, starting slightly negative, but were positive around mid-day.  They all wound up negative. But at its late morning hi the SP500 set a new intra-day hi.  The close was almost identical to Friday's, and the lo was about three points higher than yesterday.  The NASDAQ also hit a new intra-day hi, but with a lower lo, had an outside day.  They both missed new closing highs   

The Russell 2000 had a clearly down day, and at today's close is about at the midpoint of its trading range since its 3/15 hi.  This is shown on today's chart.  The heavy blue and orange lines are the 13 and 55 day EMAs. As long as the blue 13 line is above the 55 line, things have not turned negative.

Yesterday was encouraging.  Follow-through today failed.

% Changes

DJI30 -0.31%

SP500 -0.35%

NASDAQ -0.38%

Russell -1.88%

DJI Closings -

7/12/19 - 27332

7/13/20 – 26088

6/11/21 - 34480

7/13/21 - 34889

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 835/2483 = 0.34

A/D Vol = 0.32

New Hi/Lo = 140/19 = 7.37

Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,933.23   +44.44 (+0.13%)

SP500 Index   ---   4,374.30   +5.09 (+0.12%)

The DJI opened at 34920, up 32 points, the day's hi, and only 23 points under the all time intra-day hi on 5/10/21.  It slumped the rest of the morning, bottoming at 34827, off 62 points, shortly before noon.  It then turned and rose, but only meekly, gaining back less than half of the morning's loss.

This was an outside day, with the hi higher and low lower by 50 points each.  The span was 242.

The SP500 had a nearly identical performance, with an outside day by only 2 points on the hi side and 5 at the low side. It reached an all time closing hi on Monday, and now has had new intra-day highs for four consecutive sessions.

Yesterday the NASDAQ reached a new intra-day hi, but not a new closing hi.  Today was a clearly down day by 13 points at the top and 33 points at the bottom.  It reached the new intra-day hi moments after the opening, slid to a low at noon, then straddled the neutral line until after 3:00, when it slid to the low again, moments before the close

The Russell 2000 had a clearly down day.  It has been sliding since a local hi of 2350 on 6/25, and at today's closing of 2202 is now approaching both a support zone at 2160, and the bottom of its up-slanting support channel from March, 2020.  While the other indexes are at or near highs, the Russell is taking a severe beating.

Fragmentation continues. 

Daily changes -

DJI30 +0.30%

SP500 +0.12%

NASDAQ -0.22%

Russell -1.63%

DJI Closings -

7/12/19 - 27332

7/14/20 – 26643

6/14/21 - 34394

7/14/21 - 34933

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1395/1889 = 0.74

A/D Vol = 0.67

New Hi/Lo = 114/36 = 3.17

Thursday, July 15, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,987.02   +53.79 (+0.15%)

SP500 Index   ---   4,360.03   -14.27 (-0.33%)

The DJI opened at 34925, off 8 points, and a few minutes later had dropped to 34763, off 170.  It then climbed, hitting near 34975, up about 40 points, before 11:00, after 11:30, and before 1:00, staying above 34900 until 1:30 when it broke below that level.  It hit 34850 before 2:00, then rose again, hitting the day's hi after 3:30, and closing only 3 points lower.

This is a mixed day, with the hi and lo lower by 79 and 64 points respectively, contra the 54 point gain at the close.   

The SP500 had a clearly down day, but remains well above its support line. It opened at the day's hi and stepped down to the lo at 2:00, then rose into close.

The NASDAQ also had a clearly down day, very similar to that of the SP500.  It is also well above its support line.  [Today's chart]

 

The Russell 2000 opened within a point and a half of its high, then fell sharply for several minutes, rose partially, then ran sideways until 1:00.  It fell to the day's lo at 2:00, then rose into the close.  It was in the red the entire time.  At the day's lo, it pierced it's trend channel line, only 6 points above its support line, but finished back above the trend channel line.

Daily changes -

DJI30 +0.15%

SP500 -0.33%

NASDAQ -0.70%

Russell -0.55%

DJI Closings -

7/15/19 - 27359

7/15/20 – 26870

6/15/21 - 34299

7/15/21 - 34987

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1277/2008 = 0.64

A/D Vol = 0.61

New Hi/Lo = 87/39 = 2.23

Friday, July 16, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,687.85   -299.17 (-0.86%)

SP500 Index   ---   4,327.16   -32.87 (-0.75%)

The DJI opened at 25008, up 21 points. It quickly reached 35090, up 103, then dropped to 34840, off 147 before 10:30, an stayed in the red the rest of the day.  It ran mostly sideways until 2:00, then slid into the close, 40 points above the low.   This is an outside day, with the hi higher by 100 points, and the loo lower by 103.  The spread was 442.  The former support channel line now looks like resistance.

The other indexes had basically similar contours.  The SP500 also had an outside day, with no new highs.  It remains above its support channel line.  Ditto the NASDAQ.  For each of these 3 indexes, the 13 day EMA line is well above the 55 day EMA line.  They are not moving down in a serious way, yet

The Russell 2000 also had an outside day, by small margins, and was the day's big loser. It dropped from shortly after the opening until 10:00, rose until after 10:30, then dropped the rest of the day, breaking below the trend channel.  The low and close are near 2160, right at the top of the support zone.  It's 13 day EMA has passed below the 55 day EMA, which is now slanting down.  If this drop continues, it is a very bearish short term sign. This is shown in today's chart.  

NYSE internals have badly deteriorated this week, which is also no encouraging.  The short term pull back many have predicted might be upon us.  

Daily changes -

DJI30 0.86%

SP500 -0.75%

NASDAQ -0.80%

Russell -1.24%

DJI Closings -

7/15/19 - 27359

7/15/20 – 26870

6/15/21 - 34299

7/15/21 - 34987

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1000/2327 = 0.43

A/D Vol = 0.24

New Hi/Lo = 109/41 = 2.66