Taking Stock -- Week of February 1, 2021

Monday, February 1, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways.

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,211.91   +229.29 (+0.76%)

The index opened at 30055, up 72 points.  It dropped 40 points to 30315 before 10:00, and bounced off lows in that range several times before rising to 30250, up 232 at 11:45.  It stayed above 30200 and below 30270 until 2:15 when it rose, hitting 30336, up 353 at 2:45.  From there it was a bumpy 124 point slide into the close, including a 55 point drop in the last 6 minutes - on a volume spike.

This is an inside day with the the hi lower by 218 points, and the lo higher by 229 - hence the yellow arrow.  The 320 point spread is well centered in Friday’s 798.  The 229 point rise is rather anemic given the 1400 point drop [4.5%] from the 1/21 all time hi to Friday’s lo.  Momentum is still sharply down.

This looks very much like a counter-current move, and I think the main trend is still down. The drop in the day’s last 1+ hour is consistent with this idea. For what it’s worth, the other indexes has significantly larger gains today

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.76% 

SP500 +1.61%   

NASDAQ  +2.55%    

Russell 2000 +2.53% 

DJI30 Closings -

02/01/19 - 25064

01/31/20 - 28256

12/31/20 - 30606

02/01/21 - 30212

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2522/702 = 3.59

A/D Vol = 4.40

New Hi/Lo = 89/2 = 44.5

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,687.48   +475.57 (+1.57%)

The Index opened at 30277, up 65 points.  Within 5 minutes it was at 30575, up 560.  It then climbed more slowly hitting the hi of 30841, up 629 at 12:15.  It stayed above 30740 until 3:53 when it dropped into the close, including a loss of 82 points in the last few minutes on a volume spike.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 505 and 262 points, respectively. But, from the mid day hi to the close was a loss of 153 points.  The span was 564 points.  The 10 day average hit a low 241 points on 1/22.  Big moves both down and up since have increased it to 409.

Momentum did not turn positive, but it fell by much smaller margins across various time spans this session.  Today’s action is confusing.  There was a big gain that stalled at mid-day and a sharp, though rather short, fall at the end of the session.  I’m skeptical of the gain, but less convinced now that the downward trend is real.  Maybe there will be more clarity by the end of the week.

FWIW, Gamestop closed at 90, down 135.  Mercerich, the Mall REIT representing GME’s landlords, had it’s own much smaller bubble.  It traded at $7 and change in October, started to climb in November, opened the year at 10.30, and peaked at 25.99 on 1/27.  It closed today at 12.17, still massively overvalued.

% Changes -

DJI30  +1.39% 

SP500 +1.57%   

NASDAQ  +1.56%    

Russell 2000 +1.19% 

DJI30 Closings -

02/01/19 - 25064

01/31/20 - 28256

12/31/20 - 30606

02/02/21 - 30687

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2443/761 = 3.21

A/D Vol = 1.69

New Hi/Lo = 132/0 = meaningless ratio

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,723.60   +36.12 (+0.12%)

The Index opened at 20690, up 3 points.  It hit the lo of 30521, off 166 points, after 10:30.  It then gradually climbed, hitting the hi of 30793, up 106, at 2:45. From there is was a set of closely packed slightly down-slanting zig-zags between 30750 and 30780, followed by a 56 point drop from 30780 at 3:43 into the close, on a volume spike in the last minute.


Five day momentum took a small up-tick, but all the longer duration values kept falling.  This is an inside day with the hi lower by 47 points, and hi lo higher by 244.  The span was 272 points, less than half of yesterday’s 564.



This is a ho-hum day, and all the indexes wound up close to neutral.  I don’t see today’s action validating either the bullish or the bearish case.  So - who knows?


% Changes -

DJI30  +0.12% 

SP500 +0.10%   

NASDAQ  -0.02%    

Russell 2000 +0.38% 

DJI30 Closings -

02/01/19 - 25064

02/03/20 - 28400

12/31/20 - 30606

02/02/21 - 30724

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1854/1345 = 1.38

A/D Vol = 2.03

New Hi/Lo = 138/0

Thursday, February 4, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 index at he close   —-   31,055.86   +332.26 (+1.08%)

The Index opened at 30738, up 14 points, and quickly jumped to 308430, up 106.  It reached 30990 before 10:30 and 31025 before 11:30.  After that, it meandered sideways, staying between 30960 and 31015 until 4:20, when there was a 96 point surge up to the hi and the close, only 10 points lower, with a volume spike in the closing moments.

This is a clearly up day, with the lo and hi higher by 273 and 216 points, respectively.  The span was 328.  Momentum is turning back up.  It looks like the bearish case has evaporated.



% Changes -

DJI30  +1.08% 

SP500 +1.09%   

NASDAQ  _+1.23%    

Russell 2000 +1.98% 

DJI30 Closings -

02/04/19 - 25239

02/04/20 - 28808

01/04/20 - 30224

02/04/21 - 31056

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2338/874 = 2.68

A/D Vol = 1.98

New Hi/Lo = 207/3 = 69.00

Friday, February 5, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,148.24   +92.38 (+0.30%)

The Index opened at 31094, up 38 points, and quickly rose to the day’s hi of 31252, up 196.  It dropped to the day’s lo of 31083 up 27 points at 10:20, then rose to 31231, up 175, a half hour later.  From there it meandered sideways until 1:00 when it started a slow slide into the close.

This is a clearly up day — 0.30% isn’t much of a gain, but the entire session was in the green.  The hi and lo were higher by 186 and 345 points, respectively.   The day’s hi missed the all time intra-day hi by only 20 points; and the closing missed the all time closing hi by only 40.  So, those highs might represent a narrow resistance band.

This week’s rise has been nearly vertical, most noticeably if you look at the lows [red line.]  Momentum has turned up at the 5 day level and stalled at longer durations. The 21 and 34 day levels have wavered a little, but scarcely budged since the 5 day measure peaked in mid-January.

  

So, this advance is not quite the clarification i was looking for.  If the Index moves up to new highs next week, which won’t take much of a gain, then it might be up, up, and away.  But if it turns back down, the bearish case becomes realistic again.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.30% 

SP500 +0.39%   

NASDAQ  _+0.57%    

Russell 2000 +1.48% 

DJI30 Closings -

02/05/19 - 25412

02/05/20 - 29309

01/05/20 - 30392

02/05/21 - 31148

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2151/1059 = 2.03

A/D Vol = 2.36

New Hi/Lo = 286/2 = 143.00