Among AL starters in 2014 with more than 59 innings pitched, Max Scherzer had the 21st best ERA at 3.16, way below the average in that group of 3.94 [St Dev = 0.9].
His WHIP was 1.18, also well below the group average of 1.29 [St Dev = 0.2].
By that reckoning, Max was better than average by more than half a standard deviation in each metric.
So far this year, in two starts for the Nationals, he's 0-1, with 13 2/3 innings pitched, an ERA of 0.66 and WHIP at 1.02. So - despite the W-L total, he's doing very well.
I don't bear him a lot of animosity, but I wish he would have been up front enough to say he left the D for the money, instead of hedging. Therefore, i don't want his contract with the Nats to be a total bust. But I would like it to be a historically bad deal.
What I wish for Max is to be a slightly above average pitcher, so that the Nats will have paid a super-premium price for only slightly above average performance. My track record with this kind of wishful thinking is pretty poor, and this is a long shot, because I think the AL in general has better hitting, so he should mow down the opposition.
But, here's what I'm hoping for: W-L = 14-12; ERA = 3.87; WHIP = 1.42.
Really though - what are the chances?
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