tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post114449074640686472..comments2024-03-16T05:19:07.061-04:00Comments on Retirement Blues: Remarkably Stable GDP Growth - Part 3Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-66328175479505420282013-06-26T17:56:35.933-04:002013-06-26T17:56:35.933-04:00(Yeah, I use quarterly data too.)
If I have it ri...(Yeah, I use quarterly data too.)<br /><br />If I have it right, you can take any start- and end-period and figure a constant rate of growth that gets you from start to finish.<br /><br />At a constant rate of growth, I'm assuming the volatility would be zero.<br /><br />I was suggesting that CARC may be quirky: excessively volatile at short periods and excessively unvolatile at long periods.<br /><br />I didn't find good Google results for <i>compound annual rate of change</i>. So I was poking it with a stick.<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-50407450637598853742013-06-26T11:04:45.781-04:002013-06-26T11:04:45.781-04:00Art -
GDP is reported quarterly, and Recessions a...Art -<br /><br />GDP is reported quarterly, and Recessions are determined to start and end in specific months, so I don't see a problem using quarterly data.<br /><br />Your red line looks like a smoothed version of the green line, and the blue line like a smoothed version of the red line, which all makes sense I guess.<br /><br /><b>If you take CAGR for the whole period, volatility goes to zero.</b><br /><br />Could you elaborate? I'm not following. Thnx<br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-37039766892489210522013-06-26T07:06:18.455-04:002013-06-26T07:06:18.455-04:00CARC certainly exaggerates the changes.
BLUE: Per...CARC certainly exaggerates the changes.<br /><br />BLUE: Percent Change from Year Ago, GDP, frequency Annual<br />RED: Percent Change from Year Ago, GDP, frequency Quarterly<br />GREEN: Compounded Annual Rate of Change, GDP, frequency Quarterly<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=jL0<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-621520372624280122013-06-26T06:09:54.969-04:002013-06-26T06:09:54.969-04:00CARC? Eff it. GDP is an annual measure. Looks like...CARC? Eff it. GDP is an annual measure. Looks like the CARC figures the CAGR of the past four quarters, something like that. But GDP is an <i>annual</i> measure.<br /><br />If you take CAGR for the whole period, volatility goes to zero. But that is certainly not remarkable.<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.com