tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post1504906126066696803..comments2024-03-16T05:19:07.061-04:00Comments on Retirement Blues: Where has all the Money Gone, Part 1.5 - A Closer Look at Corporate ProfitsJazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-60277408898196162122011-06-11T09:31:39.849-04:002011-06-11T09:31:39.849-04:00WS -
Welcome!
I'm not getting what you mean....WS -<br /><br />Welcome!<br /><br />I'm not getting what you mean. Sorry.<br /><br />There are two ways I know to do trend lines, and I did them both here. One is a best fit, which hives you a slope. The other is to connect the tops and/or bottoms. This is the way trend channels are defined. Connecting tops, frex, does give you he same point in each cycle, it that's what you meant.<br /><br />I didn't bother with a bottom line, since the y-axis provides that quite nicely.<br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-13529373651168335562011-06-10T23:46:07.927-04:002011-06-10T23:46:07.927-04:00Came over from Illusion of Prosperity.
If you wan...Came over from Illusion of Prosperity.<br /><br />If you want to do the trendline analysis right, I think you might need to start and end at the same point in a cycle. Otherwise wouldn't you get a trend bias just from the above-trend or below-trend portion of the last segment?Wisdom Seekerhttp://i4sg.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-84515356050894362022011-06-10T11:09:39.242-04:002011-06-10T11:09:39.242-04:00I have a new chart up that uses the fall in the do...I have a new chart up that uses the fall in the dollar index to explain some of this.<br /><br /><a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2011/06/corporate-profits-vs-dollar-index.html" rel="nofollow">Corporate Profits vs. Dollar Index</a>Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-1561467021710356992011-06-10T04:46:21.823-04:002011-06-10T04:46:21.823-04:00Agreed: The apparent randomness in your first grap...Agreed: The apparent randomness in your first graph is not evidence of actual randomness. And your second graph shows it.<br /><br />As an aside, I really like that second graph.The blue-on-gray makes the plotted line stand out, and the faint image from your first graph there in the background ties the two together and emphasizes your reason for making the second graph.<br /><br />Glad you pointed out the 1970s-was-best thing. The area under that part of your 21-period line looks to be twice the size of the area under the 2000s part. (And this is how I get in trouble: by eyeballing things, as opposed to doing another graph of them as you are doing here. Hmm.)<br /><br />Perhaps the 1970s performance is related to the high inflation of those years? (Mark's graph shows a much smaller 1970s, after adjustment for inflation among other things.)<br /><br />You often observe a change in trend around 1980. Putting one continuous trend line on the graph tramples your observation. Showing two trend-lines here (before & after 1980) might show a saw-tooth pattern... But then, how would we justify interrupting the trend line at that particular point?The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-89965720348566387142011-06-10T00:12:42.580-04:002011-06-10T00:12:42.580-04:00It seems we were both working on the same idea aga...It seems we were both working on the same idea again! While you were preparing your post I was doing a similar one.<br /><br /><a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2011/06/real-pre-tax-corporate-profits-per.html" rel="nofollow">Real Pre-Tax Corporate Profits per Capita</a><br /><br />I see twin bubbles.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com